What's inside the 2026 Tariff Outlook
Five topic blocks distilled from the Federal Register, CBP CSMS feed, USTR docket, and Commerce AD/CVD ACCESS database — what importers actually need to know.
China four-year review status, the IEEPA litigation arc, scope expansions on semiconductors and lithium-ion EV inputs, and the exclusion-extension cadence that determines when Chinese-origin inputs are eligible for refund.
Steel and aluminum 25%/10% rate trajectory, BIS exclusion-extension pipeline, derivative-article expansions (HTS 9903 series), and the country exemptions that apply to Canada / Mexico / Australia / Argentina.
Preferential vs MFN rate deltas in the USMCA, KORUS FTA, and US-Australia / Chile lanes. Rule-of-origin tightening trend, certificate-of-origin documentation, and forthcoming FTA renewals.
HTS rate changes that affect importer cost models, including antidumping/countervailing rate min-max updates, IEEPA tariff wind-down refunds, and the China-origin semiconductor carve-out schedule.
Active antidumping and countervailing duty orders across 60+ cases (steel, aluminum, solar, agricultural inputs). What filings are pending in 2026, what rate floors those orders carry, and how to tell if your HTS code is in-scope.
Every claim in the brief is linked to its primary-source filing — Federal Register notices, CBP CSMS messages, or USTR documents. Where applicable, the brief links out to the live /tariffs/watch page for the freshest signal.
For importers, brokers, and trade-compliance teams
If your team plans landed cost against 2026 duty changes, sources from China or a Section 232 country, or files AD/CVD case dockets — this brief is the short version. Free in exchange for an email. No upsell beyond a single line about the deeper paid analyses ($29–$199).
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